Around 10 to 14 tropical cyclones are expected to enter or form inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility from May to October, the state weather bureau PAGASA said Wednesday, April 26.
At a climate forum, PAGASA senior weather specialist Rusy Abastillas disclosed the expected number of tropical cyclones in the next six months:
- May 2023: 1 or 2
- June 2023: 1 or 2
- July 2023: 2 to 4
- August 2023: 2 to 3
- September 2023: 2 or 3
- October 2023: 2 or 3
Tropical Depression Amang, which hit the country earlier this month, was the country’s first this year.
Meanwhile, Abastillas said there is a 41% chance of a “strong” El Niño occurring from November 2023 to January 2024.
El Niño is associated with drier conditions.
“A transition from ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)-neutral to El Niño is favored during the May-June-July 2023, with chances of El Niño increasing towards the first quarter of 2024,” Abastillas said.
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