THE Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that the low-pressure area (LPA) inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has developed into Tropical Depression Paolo on Wednesday, October 1.

In its 11 a.m. bulletin, the state weather bureau said the center of Tropical Depression Paolo was 760 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes. It has maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour (km/h), with gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and is currently moving westward at a speed of 25 km/h.

PAGASA said Paolo may generally move westward and make landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora on Friday morning or afternoon, October 3.

It added that Paolo would continue to intensify over the Philippine Sea and may develop into a severe tropical storm by Friday morning.

As of writing, no tropical cyclone wind signals (TCWS) have been raised, but PAGASA said wind signal no. 1 may be hoisted over the eastern sections of Northern and Central Luzon as early as this afternoon or evening.

The weather bureau also noted that wind signal no. 3 may be the highest warning to be raised as Paolo traverses the country, but it may reach signal no. 4 if Paolo develops into a typhoon.

Up to 4 tropical cyclones in October

PAGASA earlier reported that nine more tropical cyclones are expected to form or enter the PAR in the last quarter of 2025.

The weather bureau has forecasted two to four tropical cyclones in October, two to three in November, and one to two in December.

The Philippines has experienced 15 storms so far this year, including Severe Tropical Storm Opong that claimed the lives of over 27 individuals.