AFTER the cold shoulder given by Rodrigo Duterte to the Americans during his administration, his successor President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. welcomed the US military’s help again. Help us manage our biggest insecurity — China.

But Marcos Jr. has also opened the doors to China last month. Let’s talk about how we can both explore oil and gas in the West Philippine Sea without killing each other.

Foreign policy analysts are asking: Is the new Philippine President treading dangerous waters by going into strategic ambiguity and engaging the two superpowers?

Joint patrol, more access for the Americans

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III recently concluded his back-to-back visits to Seoul and Manila. His main goal: strengthen further existing military alliances in East Asia as China is getting bolder and apparently becoming a rules-breaker.

In Manila, both countries agreed that their navies and air forces hold “joint patrols” at the hotly contested South China Sea.

Marcos Jr. also allowed the Americans to set up facilities in four more military bases in the country.

Austin kept repeating the line which the Philippines has been wanting to hear, like an insecure wife asking for constant love whispers from her husband.

America, the world’s most powerful military, has an “iron-clad” commitment to enforce the ambiguous 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, Austin said.

“The Mutual Defense Treaty extends to Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft anywhere in the South China Sea,” the DoD said in a readout released Friday after Austin’s visit.

China to PHL: Don’t trust the Americans

The renewal of vows and reinvigorating military engagements between Manila and Washington would most likely irritate big neighbor China.

Although there are four other countries or territories claiming the South China Sea, China is the only superpower.

When Washington was still ambivalent on how to approach rock disputes outside the Pacific theater, Beijing has magically turned rocks or sandbars into military fortresses.

Now, the Chinese Coast Guards and its militia of fishermen have control over waters where Filipino fishermen used to go.

The Philippines turned to legal means, through a United Nations court of arbitration. But being a superpower, China can disregard the world for all they care (the US does this, too, by the way).

China treaded carefully when asked to comment about the recent visit of Austin.

Stay vigilant and resist from being taken advantage of and dragged into troubled waters, the Chinese Embassy said.

The Embassy said countries can forge military alliances and cooperation. But not at the expense of another country. It’s China’s diplomatic way of saying, “The US is a bully.”

“The United States, out of its self interests and zero-sum game mentality, continues to step up military posture in this region. Its actions escalate regional tension and undermine regional peace and stability,” the Embassy spokesperson said.

PHL-China joint oil and gas exploration in the WPS

Let’s take a step back a little.

Just last month, China’s bitter cold winter and COVID-19 Omicron’s wave didn’t stop Marcos Jr. from flying into to Beijing and meeting China’s leader Xi Jin Ping. Marcos Jr. subtly made an overture to the US that China is important. His first state visit outside Asean is China.

The Philippines is excited. China is finally opening up and trade would fully resume. But there is one big elephant in the room that needed to address — the South China Sea dispute.

Marcos Jr. doesn’t have the charm of Duterte, so he had to tag along China’s pal, former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Arroyo’s realpolitik: China and Philippines will forever be neighbors, so its best to be friends rather than enemies. Let’s look at the positive sum game, where all can benefit.

Trust, though, takes years to build over time. As a way to reboot the trust button, Marcos Jr. agreed to hold talks again how both countries can jointly explore gas and oil in the South China Sea.

Talks can take years. Exploration may take years.

However, time is not on the side of Marcos Jr. Xi, the apparent emperor, is playing the long game.

Strategic ambiguity

Marcos Jr. may have signaled to the world that China is an important neighbor, friend and partner.

But in reality, as long as the MDT is in force, the Philippines is linked to the US. So whether Marcos Jr. likes it or not, the Philippines cannot be neutral.

Former National Security Adviser Clarita Carlos said she cannot second guess what’s on the mind of President Marcos Jr. now that she’s already out of his Cabinet. But in a cryptic post in her Facebook, she wrote, “Methinks the continuing BELLIGERENCE of one hegemon in the contested waters, has pushed us to the arms of the other hegemon…tsk, tsk, tsk…“

In the meantime, South China Sea is a tinderbox. Whether Marcos Jr. just ignited the spark or placed the safety switch remains to be seen. Let the games begin!