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PAGASA expects La Niña during third quarter of 2024

by Kiko Cueto

The Philippines’ state weather bureau expects the La Niña phenomenon to arrive during the months of July, August, and September, while the onset of rainy season may begin during the period from last week of May to June 15.

However, a delayed onset of the rainy season is still possible, with a slim chance of only 15%, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said.

Ana Liza S. Solis, chief of Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section of PAGASA, said that the probability of La Niña beginning within the July-August-September (JAS) season stands at 69% chance, citing the PAGASA’s El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert System. 

In a report to presidential task force on El Niño response, Solis also said that while the El Niño phenomenon continues to weaken, its impact such as extremely warm and dry weather conditions may linger as the country transitions to ENSO-neutral conditions and eventually, to La Niña.

“We are currently at a La Niña Watch state,” Solis told the 5th Task Force El Niño (TFEN) meeting held on May 10 at the Office of Civil Defense in Camp Aguinaldo. 

“A PAGASA La Niña Alert when issued guarantees that the weather phenomenon will begin within the next two to three months,” she added.

During the meeting, Secretary Teodoro, chairperson of the presidential task force on El Niño response, has given instructions to mobilize all departments and agencies involved in TFEN to begin preparations ahead of the La Niña phenomenon.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr, on January 19, 2024, signed Executive Order No. 53 to streamline, reactivate, and reconstitute the old El Niño task forces under EO No. 16 (s. 2001) and Memorandum Order No. 38 (s. 2019).

Under EO No. 53, the President instructed the new task force to develop a comprehensive disaster preparedness and rehabilitation plan for El Niño and La Niña to provide “systematic, holistic, and results-driven interventions” to help the public cope and minimize their devastating effects.

Secretary Teodoro is the chairperson of the presidential task force, with Secretary of Science and Technology Renato U. Solidum as co-chairperson.

TFEN members are Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources Maria Antonia Yulo Loyzaga, Secretary of Agriculture Francis Tiu Laurel Jr., Secretary of Health Teodoro J. Herbosa, and Secretary of National Economic and Development Authority Arsenio M. Balisacan. 

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