Filipino population going down because of Gen Zs? Sociologist explains

GEN Z are next in line for parenthood. Feel old yet? 

With the coming Generation Beta, the responsibility for parenthood falls on the shoulders of the later Millennials and the Gen Z, both of which make up a substantial portion of the current workforce. This means that parenthood will take on a new face and will most likely be influenced with the cultures and values held by both these generations, especially Gen Z. 

But are Gen Zs really capable of parenthood, or should we be afraid? Do Gen Zs even want to be parents at all (really, in this economy)?

Well, the answer seems to be complicated. 

On one hand, there seems to be a decline in the birth rate as shown by the 2022 Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) Data Dissemination Forum under Philippine Statistics Authority and confirmed by the National Demographic and Health Survey. 

But on the other hand, there is a controversial increase in the number of teenage pregnancies happening in the country which pushes the Senate to author the Senate Bill No. 1979, also known as the Adolescent Pregnancy Prevention bill. 

So… what are Gen Z’s real take on parenthood? And how will it affect the future trends? 

That’s what republicasia tried to find out. For this article, we have interviewed former University of the Philippines Los Baños Professor and Sociologist, Mary Diane Duran. 

A little background

Miss Duran has finished her undergraduate degree and master’s in sociology from the same university. For years, she had taught Social Psychology and Gender & Sexuality in UPLB, where she also contributed as a researcher in the field. 

During the interview Miss Duran gave us an overview of the general trends about the Philippine population and its birthrate. 

“Siguro, i-clear muna natin na what’s declining in the Philippines and abroad is birth rate. So ito ‘yung bilang ng mga ipinapanganak kada babae. And ‘yung target natin diyan, normally, is 2.1.”

This means that women are expected to bear two children at a minimum to maintain the growth of population. 

“However, sa Pilipinas, it’s declining. In other parts of the world, ‘yung last year na balita sa [South] Korea, it’s below one. But population-wise, ‘yung number ng tao, it’s still rising dito sa Pilipinas. Mataas pa rin ang population natin at pataas pa rin siya.”

“I agreed to this topic because it interested me no’ng gumagawa ako ng graduate thesis ko no’ng masters. ‘Yung phenomenon ng voluntary childlessness is one of my research interests,” said Miss Duran. 

“It was 2017, 2018, nagre-research ako ng topic. At the same time, may research din na ano naman, about teenage pregnancy. So, you would see ‘di ba? Mahirap isipin siya. Sa biglang tingin, contradicting. Pataas ‘yung population natin pero pababa ‘yung birth rate.”

But Miss Duran emphasized that the effects of birthrate might not mirror the current number of population. 

“Pero kasi ‘yung effect ng birthrate, makikita pa natin siya later. So siguro mga 20 [years], ‘pagka lumipas na ‘yung ilang taon. Population kasi is kung ilang bilang tayo ngayon. So pataas pa tayo, magpi-peak pa tayo.”

The population peak refers to the point in time when the global or a specific region’s population reaches its highest level before it starts to decline or stabilize. It is a result of the combination of several factors including birthdates, death rates, and migration patterns. 

A population peak typically signifies a change in demographic trends, often driven by lower birth rates, aging populations, or changes in fertility and mortality rates. 

After the peak, a region may experience population stagnation or even decline, depending on its specific conditions.

“Ang pinoproblema ng maraming bansa, lalo na ng [South] Korea ay ‘yung pagbaba ng birthrate nila. Why? ‘Yung magiging peak ng population nila, malapit na. They are expected to peak by 2044— ang lapit na! So ‘yun na ang pinakamataas na population nila. From then, wala silang magagawa regarding their declining birth rates, drop na ‘yun. Pababa na ‘yun,” she explained. 

The Philippine case has a different story. 

“Sa atin sa Pilipinas, medyo matagal pa. It might take us double pa, or until 2100s [to reach the peak]. Many, many years pa from now.”

But the trends of the declining birth rates in the Philippines is still a cause of concern. 

“It’s still bothersome kasi nakikita mo na kung ano ‘yung mga nagiging problema in other countries, especially do’n nga sa mga sobrang baba. Kasi marami siyang effects.”

On gender norms

Miss Duran said that the birth rate decline in the Philippines is also caused by the same reasons that affect other countries. 

“Some of the reasons include ‘yung urbanization, ‘yung economic challenges ng pagkakaroon ng anak, women empowerment… we’re not saying that these are all bad things. Pero nagkakataon lang kasi na hindi natin siya naba-balance with other things.”

Miss Duran gave an example in the form of women empowerment. 

“We encouraged women to be part of the work force. So that’s one thing— that’s a good thing, ‘di ba? Nakaka-contribute sila sa economy— o tayo— nakaka-contribute tayo sa economy. But hindi natin siya naba-balance in terms of expectations.”

Miss Duran emphasized the significance of gender roles in affecting the desirability to reproduce and have children. 

“It [gender roles] heavily impacts not wanting children. Kasi you encourage me to do one thing and then pagdating ng certain point, sasabihin mo sa ‘kin na, ‘give all that up.’ Mag-anak ka, tapos ‘pag nag-anak ka, ikaw bahala.”

What Miss Duran means is that women are expected to have various roles in the society— to be part of the workforce and, at the same time, to carry the burden of reproduction to sustain the population. However, women are not often given enough support to bear these dual expectations. 

“It’s contradicting. It’s hard to imagine doing both, and it’s a privilege to imagine doing both. So ang mangyayari niyan is you’re choosing: do I really want to have kids or do I want to pursue my career? It’s not just you’re husband, it’s not just your family who’s expecting you to take care of your kids— a whole structure is expecting you to take care of your kids.” 

This means that there are traditional roles and responsibilities only expected from women. An example of this would be the concept of maternity leave. Although the women in the Philippines are given enough time for maternity leave, it is not expected from the father of the child. 

This tradition subtly sends the message that it is the mother who entirely is responsible for the care of the infant. There is virtually no institutional support when it comes to childcare, 

Miss Duran also used as an example the tight restrictions implemented by private sectors and corporations that limit women’s options between having a family and pursuing their careers. 

“For example, may mga private companies na iha-hire ka kapag bata ka pang babae— hindi ka naman tatanggalin kapag may anak ka na— pero they are not inclined to hire women na of marrying age, na may asawa pero wala pang anak. And they wouldn’t say that, hindi nila sasabihin ‘yon. Hindi rin sila gano’ng magtatanong.”

“Ine-expect mo sa babae ‘yun eh, pero you don’t expect that from men. You don’t care whether men are married, single, ilan na anak niya, kasi you don’t expect them for the kids.”

The good thing though was that the Philippines have a better equal gender landscape than the other ones. 

“Of course, again, I would argue na mas open tayo [Philippines] do’n sa idea ng sharing responsibilities at home. It’s not as striking ‘yung difference ng responsibilities sa bahay as South Korea— do’n talaga, ‘pag kinasal ka na expectation is mag-aanak ka na. So next expectation is magre-resign ka na.”

On cultural and social norms and influences

But it is not only gender norms that can affect the birth rates. Religious beliefs and social trends also play a big part in the attitude of people when it comes to reproduction. 

“Kung Gen Z ang pag-uusapan natin, there is data about Gen Z being the least religious generation. I’m not sure if it’s true for the Philippines too, but based on observation, it might be the same for the Philippines. Kasi there’s a lot of alternative views already, ‘di ba?”

Miss Duran said that although a lot of Filipinos are Catholics, Gen Zs grew up in a digital age, where less dominant ideas get exposure through social media. 

“Sila rin ‘yung pinaka-expose sa internet. Views from outside Catholicism— nalalaman din. Mas critical siguro ang Gen Z sa teachings ng Catholicism. For example, ‘di ba, you have to marry first before having kids, tapos ang daming stance ng Catholic Church na… we know for a fact na a lot of progressive people— Gen Z, some of them—are heavily against. Divorce law, reproductive law, family planning, at most basic, ayaw ng katolisismo dyan. Pero Gen Zs are critical about the Catholic Church being against these things.”

Miss Duran said that if the Catholic Church has any influence on Gen Z, it was unlike in the previous generation. This influence is more polarizing. 

“The more that you impinge upon them the idea na ito dapat, bawal ‘yan, ‘wag mong gawing ‘yan, parang lalong [Gen Z] nagre-rebel. Kasi they know for a fact na itong sinasabi mong dapat is not what’s going to help me. Itong sinasabi mong bawal is going to benefit more people.”

The proliferation of social media use also contributes to the widening gap between outside knowledge and the dominant ideologies held by the Filipino culture. 

“Western countries ‘di ba very liberal ‘yan sila? That’s where we get ideas about divorce, living life after divorce, single living. Social media opens us up to those ideas of successful singlehood, so to speak. If we do not see it in our own families, for example we do not have a model of being a happily single individual in the family, we see models on social media. It is easier to see alternative models and lifestyles now that we have social media, not only for Gen Zs but for millennials, I would argue. Because they grew up with the internet.”

Generational Comparisons

Miss Duran said that there’s certainly a difference between generations and their views on parenthood. Gen X, older Millennials, and Gen Z have their own touch of culture when it comes to the view of parenthood. 

“For Gen X and older Millennials, it is expected to marry and have kids ‘di ba? Kaya nga you would hear stories of ‘kelan ka mag-aasawa?’, ‘kelan ka mag-aanak?’ And who [often] asks that? These are your titas, Gen X lolos… so there’s an expectation na it is part of your personhood. Milestone ‘yon, na after mo maka-graduate, magtatrabaho kang konti, and then mag-aasawa and mag-aanak ka na. ‘Yun ‘yung milestones during those times,” she said.

“Sa ‘tin, younger millennials and Gen Zs, mas marami kasi tayong gustong gawin.”

Miss Duran said that younger millennials and older Gen Zs focused their milestones more on their careers. 

“‘Pag tinignan mo kasi ‘yung goals nila [Millennials and Gen Zs], parang sabay-sabay. ‘I want this level of income, I want to take my master’s, I want to take my PhD’, so saan mo ipapasok ‘yung pag-aanak do’n? Even pag-aasawa kasi expected to follow na kapag nag-asawa ka, mag-aanak ka. I think hindi pa rin ka-accepted socially ‘yung pag-aasawa outside of wedlock, so even marrying is being delayed. So ang marrying age nasa 30, 40… mga ganyan. Very rarely ko marinig ‘yung mga kinakasal na mas bata pa sa 25, at least in my circle. There’s a lot to aim for in this generation. Hindi ‘yon individual goals lang na naisip mo lang na gusto mo gawin but halo-halong factors like social media. Kaya ang dami nating pangarap kasi nakakita tayo ng “models” na kaya naman palang gawin basta ganito ka, ganyan.”

The economic difference in each era of the generations also contributed to the changing decisions. 

“Yung mga Gen X, mura bahay, mura lupa. Ngayon you would have to aim for a house. It doesn’t come naturally na after five years, kaya mo na magpundar ng bahay. No, it will come much later. And if ang gusto mong trajectory is bahay muna bago mag-asawa, ang tagal! For example sa Metro Manila, not sure if this is updated, pero ‘yung median price ng bahay is 24 times higher than the median income. You could just imagine, ‘di ba? It’s not like you’re just saving up for a house. Like I said, there’s a lot to aim for.”

Miss Duran said that today, the goalposts are very far from each other. This contributes to the delay to have children or the decision to not have any at all.

Broader Implications

Miss Duran said that if we want to see the future of the Philippines with low birth rates, we could look at the neighboring countries. 

“Mostly, ang may problema talaga sa pagbaba ng birth rates ay mga economic practitioners kasi malaki talaga ang effect no’n sa economy. For example, there was an article that I’ve read recently na sabi ko, uy timing. India would supercede… mauungusan na niya ‘yung China in terms of providing workforce, or biggest workforce kasi nag-peak na ‘yung China so pababa na ‘yung population niya.”

For the Philippines, whose population is yet to reach its peak, the effect of the declining birthrates is a later problem. But Miss Duran warned that we should not be complacent. 

“If we think ahead, medyo problematic nga siya kasi we see other countries’ dilemma. What could be the implications? Kasi ang mangyayari dyan, tatanda ang population mo. There will be more older people than there are younger people. The problem with that is, who’s going to support the older people?”

The birth rate decline would really be a problem for the social support system of the older generations. 

“Nagwo-work kasi ang social support system natin in a way na, ‘yung mga nagtatrabaho, nagbabayad sila ng tax. Tax sa trabaho, consumption tax, lahat yan galing sa workforce mo. Even the shops… who’s going to buy ‘pag wala nang buyers? Maraming magsasarang companies na wala nang buying power.”

Not to mention, the government and other institutions rely on these workforce to support the country. If there are no more young people to replace the ageing workforce, then there’s a possibility that these institutions will weaken or worse, collapse. 

“Who’s going to support the elderly later on?” asked Miss Duran, stating that if there are no more young people to work, then the older generation will be forced to elongate their services instead of going directly to retirement. 

Cultural traditions and heritage might also be in the line due to the changing family setup, although this phenomenon is already happening. 

“It’s already happening despite us not seeing yet the effects of low birth rates. Cultural traditions, malapit nang mawala ‘yung iba but a lot, hindi na.”

Change and Adaptation

The low birth rate is definitely one complicated problem to solve, especially in the contradiction of the Philippine context. But let us remember that it is not only the individual choice of each Gen Z that contributes to it but also the social, political, and environmental factors that shape our world. 

While the future may seem uncertain due to the low birth rate and its potential consequences, the possibility for change remains. 

This challenge is not one that Gen Z and younger generations must shoulder alone. It is a problem that requires the collective effort of all generations, working together to shape a world where the choice of parenthood—and the systems surrounding it—can adapt to the realities of the future. 

The choices of the older generations will continue to shape the world in ways that redefine what it means to care, build families, and contribute to society.